Macroeconomic reports review:

Few macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Tuesday. The only relatively important report that could influence market sentiment today is U.S. durable-goods orders. All other releases are secondary or tertiary, so we do not see a reason to draw traders' attention to them. In general, the market continues to follow geopolitical developments and mass unrest in European countries, and it is awaiting the most hawkish possible actions, plans, and rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

Fundamental events analysis:

Among Tuesday's fundamental events, Christine Lagarde will speak, but beginners should remember that the European Central Bank president is not obliged to address monetary-policy issues at every public appearance. Therefore, two days before the ECB meeting, Lagarde is unlikely to discuss key rates or the central bank's decisions for the rest of the year. If so, her remarks will matter little to FX markets.

The geopolitical backdrop remains worrying. The United States and Iran are not holding official talks at present, although Donald Trump continues to insist a deal could be signed—the question is when. Reports also indicate the U.S. and Israel could resume strikes on Iran immediately after the congressional elections, as the probability of an agreement with Tehran appears close to zero. We find that scenario more plausible than a ceasefire. Iran, for its part, is prepared to resume strikes on U.S. allies in the region. In addition, mass unrest continues in many European countries, which does little to boost euro sentiment.

Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, currency pairs may trade calmly because few important events are scheduled today and the Fed decision is due tomorrow. Accordingly, strong intraday moves are unlikely. The euro can be traded on Tuesday from the 1.1132–1.1140 and 1.1198–1.1218 areas, and the pound from the 1.3319–1.3331 area.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, set a stop-loss to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.