Bitcoin is trading around $86,200, up roughly 1.9% on the day, extending Friday's jump after a weak US jobs report. That same Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the listing of the country's first 3x products on Bitcoin and Ethereum. The decision improved sentiment, but it hasn't affected price so far because the funds haven't started trading yet.

Trading will not start immediately. No launch date has been announced, and S-1 registrations must go effective before tickers can appear. Nonetheless, this is positive for both CME and the crypto market because new funds will create additional demand.

For now, the market is living off macro data. Consensus for the September US jobs report was around +90,000 jobs, but the print came in at +29,000. July was revised from +21,000 to -10,000, wage growth slowed to 3.0% year-on-year, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Against that backdrop, Bitcoin held above $86,000, Treasury yields eased, and Bitcoin short positions lost about $27.5 million. Dismal labor statistics were good for the asset: weaker data reduce the odds of a Fed rate hike and make a pause at the October 28 meeting more likely.

In my view, the real impact of the new 3x funds will appear only when their assets become material. Until they trade, their effect is zero, so the SEC decision is mainly a signal of how quickly the regulator's stance on crypto has shifted.

I expect Bitcoin to retain bullish potential in the coming days: as long as the Fed is priced in for a pause, buyers will push toward $87,000, where the last impulse stalled. A decisive close above would open the way to $90,000, while a drop back below $85,000 would return the price to the prior range. I do not expect the triple-leverage funds to launch in the immediate days ahead.

Technical outlook for Bitcoin

Buyers are targeting a return to $87,000, which would open a path to $89,000 and then toward $92,000 — a break above which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers at $84,900. A move below that area could quickly push BTC toward $83,000. The next extended downside target would be around $81,300.

Technical outlook for Ethereum

A clear close above $2,739 opens the way to $2,793. The next extended target is around $2,872 — a break above which would strengthen bullish sentiment and restore buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $2,668. A return below that area could quickly send ETH toward $2,578. The next extended downside target would be around $2,486.

Chart notes:

• Red levels denote support and resistance points where price is expected to either stall or accelerate.
• Green shows the 50-day moving average.
• Blue shows the 100-day moving average.
• Light green shows the 200-day moving average.

Crosses of — or price tests of — these moving averages typically either stop the move or set a new market impulse.