Yesterday, Galaxy Digital released a report noting that Bitcoin's bear market actually ended back in June 2026, and the asset is now in an accumulation phase that has historically preceded new growth cycles. That statement comes against a price around $80,000 and a potential monthly decline of roughly 4%, so it reads as a contrarian bet against the prevailing cautious consensus. But Galaxy has several arguments.

The first is technical. Bitcoin held the key 200-week moving average and moved back above the 50-week moving average — signals that typically mark the end of a bear phase. The second concerns sellers. Large speculative funds have cut their Bitcoin positions by more than half, while long-term holders have largely kept theirs, meaning excess supply has been removed. The third shows institutional return. Since the June low, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bought an additional 87,000 BTC — about $7 billion. Recall that last week funds erased October losses over three sessions, then gave back $772.4 million on Thursday and Friday, so inflows remain wave-like.

The fourth argument is historical. In 2015 and 2018, institutional attention shifted from Bitcoin to blockchain technologies, and after that Bitcoin rose 83x and 20x, respectively, to the peaks of the following cycles. The firm draws a parallel with today's interest in stablecoins and tokenization. The fifth argument is macroeconomic. US government debt has exceeded $40 trillion and annual interest expenses reached $1.28 trillion, which, Galaxy argues, increases the appeal of assets with limited supply.

Galaxy's forecast is specific, and that is its strength. The firm believes Bitcoin can return to $125,000 and beyond. It also names a clear invalidation level: a weekly close below $76,540 without recovery within a month would trigger a revision of the outlook. Notably, that threshold is only about 4–5% from the current price, so a test could come quickly.

I believe Galaxy's thesis is workable on a multi-month horizon, but not necessarily for weeks. The Fed decision on Wednesday and tech giants' earnings could test the $79,000–78,000 support before the accumulation phase fully shows in price, and I allow for a move toward $77,000. If $76,540 holds on a weekly close, the $76,500–81,000 range will look like a base for growth, and a return to $85,000 in November would become a realistic target.

Technical analysis and recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $80,900, which opens a direct path to $82,800, and from there $84,500 is near at hand — a breach of that level would signal attempts to restore the bull market. In the event of a Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at $78,700. A drop back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $76,900. The most distant target would be around $75,300.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,348 opens a direct path to $2,417. The most distant target is the high near $2,508; breaking that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. In case of a drop, I expect buyers at $2,274. A return below that area could quickly drive ETH toward $2,231. The most distant target would be around $2,184.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.