Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.1196 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.1221.

The September Eurozone PMI matched the preliminary reading and provided some support for the euro. A more detailed analysis shows that output and new orders in the Eurozone continued to increase across sectors, which is a positive development for the economy. At the same time, costs also increased, and they rose faster than the average, which is a concern for the ECB. The regulator, which has already raised the deposit rate to 2.50% and has left the possibility of further increases open, has received additional evidence that inflationary pressure has not yet weakened.

For EUR/USD, the second half of the day is likely to provide an important test of current market conditions. The morning rebound after the decline to the lowest level since May 2025 was limited, and euro buyers attempted to maintain their positions, but political risks in France and Spain remain an important factor. The only significant economic data remaining today are from the United States, including the September Services PMI, the Composite PMI, and the ISM Services PMI. There are no other scheduled releases likely to significantly change the market outlook. The logic is straightforward. If the data are strong, pressure on the pair will quickly return. Strong services activity, which accounts for the largest part of the US economy, will push Treasury yields higher, while 10-year yields are already trading near 5.26%. This is an unfavorable combination for the euro, as it provides an additional reason for capital to move into the US dollar. Weak data would have the opposite effect. If the US services sector shows a significant slowdown and the ISM falls below August's 55.4, expectations regarding the Fed could shift toward a pause, giving the euro an opportunity to extend its rebound. I would remind you that the market currently estimates the probability of an October rate hike at only 20%.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The euro can be bought today if the price reaches the level around 1.1217 (the green line on the chart), with the target at 1.1244. At 1.1244, I plan to exit the market and also open a short position on the euro, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro can be expected today if the US data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1198 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1217 and 1.1244 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1198 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1176, where I plan to exit the market and immediately open a long position, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1217 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1198 and 1.1176 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally preferable to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently an ineffective strategy for an intraday trader.