Bitcoin enters the last week of October clinging to the $80,000 support. If the monthly candle closes near that level, the month will end down roughly 4%. That would mirror last year. The average October gain for BTC/USD since 2010 is 26.1% — hence the nickname "Uptober" — but in October 2025, Bitcoin lost 3.9%, then another 17.5% in November, despite an average historical November gain of 35%. This weekend, the $80,000 level did not hold even on lower timeframes. Nearly $150 million of long positions were liquidated in two hours as the price fell toward $79,200.

Participants are growing cautious: repeated trips by Bitcoin to $87,000 in late September. Early October points to weakness that could persist through the end of the year. Notably, the large resistance area around $87,000 is packed with important levels: the 2026 year open and the 20-month moving average sit there.

Now, let's talk about what will move the market this week. The main event is the Fed policy decision on Wednesday. The market is almost certain the federal funds rate will stay in the 3.75–4% range; the probability of a pause exceeds 90%. Clearly, after the very heated Fed meetings in early 2026, the current meeting draws little market interest.

On Thursday, the PCE price index favored by the Federal Reserve will be released; the previous print of 3.4% year-on-year came in below expectations due to changes in how some components were calculated.

Stock markets will provide additional background. South Korea's KOSPI, a barometer of AI-related trading, already closed today down about 1.5%. That indicates foreign capital flowed out of tech stocks in search of safety. Only strong US company reports can halt that exodus. This week, Microsoft and Alphabet report on Wednesday after the close, and Amazon and Intel report on Thursday.

I believe the Fed pause is already fully priced in, so Wednesday's decision by itself won't give Bitcoin support — the real test will be the earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel. My base case assumes pressure on the $80,000 area with a repeat visit to $79,145 and below ahead of those reports; a return above $80,900 is possible only if corporate results restore risk appetite.

Bitcoin

The price is holding near $80,000 in a corridor between support at $80,200 and resistance at $80,500, with outer reference points at $79,700 below and $80,900 above. The plan is built around two mirror directions, each with breakout and rejection scenarios.

I would consider a buy scenario in two cases. If the price breaks above $80,500 and holds there, I buy targeting $80,900, provided price stays above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. I take profit at the target and consider a short position on the retrace. If a break below $80,200 fails and price returns above, I buy the rejection, targeting first $80,500 and then $80,900.

The sell strategy is symmetrical. If the price breaks below $80,200 and holds, I open a short position targeting $79,700, provided the moving average is above the price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above $80,500 fails and the price returns lower, I sell the rejection, targeting first $80,200 and then $79,700.

Ethereum

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin's on its own price scale. The corridor lies between support at $2,320 and resistance at $2,331, with outer references at $2,293 below and $2,353 above. I buy on the condition of a confirmed break above $2,331 with a target of $2,353, provided the price is above the 50-day moving average, and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If a break below $2,320 fails and the price returns higher, I buy the rejection, targeting first $2,331 and then $2,353.

I sell a confirmed break below $2,320 with a target of $2,293, provided the moving average is above the price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above $2,331 fails and the price returns lower, I sell the rejection, targeting first $2,320 and then $2,293. Both indicators serve as filters to cut off false moves rather than standalone reasons to enter early, and positions are taken only after the price gives real confirmation of the specified levels.